Calibration

When we say 60%, it should happen about 6 times in 10. Each point groups checked forecasts by the probability we stated. A group needs 5 checked forecasts before it is drawn.

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Stated probability vs how often it came true
0%50%100% 0%50%100% What we saidHow often it happened

No forecasts checked yet. The first check is Oct 30.

The dashed line is a perfectly honest forecaster.