Forecast #1

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skew_v2 · window Oct 23–29 · signed Oct 22

The “Skew” paper account’s result for Oct 23–29 lands between −9.1% and +16.2%.

Stated probability95%

Range−9.1% to +16.2%

Checked Oct 30

Check it yourself

The forecast was frozen in a file before the window started. Its SHA-256 fingerprint was published the same day, so any edit would change it.

In the Luna repository, run:

sha256sum research/skew-v2-stage2-bands.json

It must print the fingerprint above.